3 January marked the 13th anniversary of the Bitcoin Genesis Block or the beginning of the Bitcoin chain as we know it today. But, on its birthday, BTC price levels remained under $50k. Soon after on 4 January, the coin is hovering close to $46,700 with a weekly return down by 7.7%.
That being said, extreme fear persists in the market.
Analyst Mr. Whale, a long-term Bitcoin opponent, also took to Twitter recently to indicate that sky-high Bitcoin valuations of $100,000+ has not materialized.
On the contrary, some industry players are still optimistic. Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and Managing Partner, crypto lender Nexo told CNBC,
“I think [bitcoin’s] going to reach $100,000 this year, probably by the middle of it.”
With some other analysts maintaining a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin, Katie Stockton, founder, and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies LLC has a similar take. In an email to Forbes, she said that they are bullish on Bitcoin based on their long-term trend-following gauges, adding,
“We assume the long-term uptrend will maintain itself and a more decisive breakout to new highs would allow for an impressive measured-move projection of approximately $90,000. For now, a corrective phase still has a hold, although there are potential signs of short-term downside exhaustion.”
LUNA, FTM, ATOM, and ONE could rally if Bitcoin rises above the 50-day SMA.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to languish below the psychological level at $50,000 in the first few days of the New Year, indicating a lack of aggressive buying by traders. Former BTCC CEO Bobby Lee said the exodus of the Chinese traders who had until Dec. 31 to exit Chinese exchanges may have kept prices lower into the year-end.
However, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, believes that Bitcoin could rally to $100,000 this year. President Bukele also said that two more countries will accept Bitcoin as legal tender in 2022.
The increased crypto adoption by institutional investors in 2021 is another long-term positive. According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds in 2021 were more than $9.3 billion. A majority of over two-thirds of the crypto inflows were into Bitcoin.
Could Bitcoin start a new up-move in January pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s study the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that may remain positive in the short term.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been trading between the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($48,720) and the strong support at $45,456 for the past few days. This suggests that buying dries up at higher levels.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are turning down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the price below $45,456. If they manage to do that, the next leg of the downtrend to $42,000 and then to $40,000 could begin.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($52,332). A break and close above this level could signal the start of a new up-move that could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $58,686.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The four-hour chart shows that the pair is range-bound between $45,456 and $51,936.33. The price has rebounded off $45,456 and if bulls push the pair above the 50-SMA, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. That could drive the price toward $51,936.33.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 50-SMA, the bears will make one more attempt to pull the pair below $45,456. If they succeed, the pair could resume the downtrend with the next target objective at $38,975.67.
LUNA/USDT
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Terra’s LUNA token is attempting to resume its uptrend but the bears have other plans, drawing a line near $93.81.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory suggest a slight edge to the buyers. If the price once again rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($82), it will indicate that bulls continue to accumulate on dips.
The LUNA/USDT pair will then try to break above $93.81 and challenge the all-time high at $103.60. A break and close above this resistance could start the next leg of the uptrend to $135.26.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal a change in the short-term trend. The pair could then drop to $65.15.
LUNA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The bounce off $81.11 is facing selling in the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $92.35 and the 61.8% retracement level at $95.01. The bears will now try to pull the price below the 20-EMA and the uptrend line.
If they do that, the pair could drop to $84 and then to $81.11. A break and close below this support could signal that bears are back in the game.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level or the uptrend line, the buyers will try to drive the pair above $95.01 and retest the overhead resistance at $103.60.
FTM/USDT
Fantom (FTM) has turned down from the overhead resistance at $2.67, which suggests that bears are defending this level with vigor.
FTM/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The FTM/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA, which could act as strong support. A sharp rebound off this support will suggest that buyers are accumulating on dips.
The rising 20-day EMA ($2.03) and the RSI above 68 suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
A break and close above $2.67 will suggest that bulls are back in the game. The pair could then start its northward march toward $3.17 and then to $3.48. The bears will have to pull and sustain the price below $2 to invalidate the bullish sentiment.
FTM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The four-hour chart shows a rounding bottom formation, which will complete on a break and close above the overhead resistance at $2.67. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the bulls will again try to overcome the barrier at $2.67. If that happens, the up-move could begin.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the short-term bullish momentum could be weakening. The pair could then drop to the 50-SMA and later to the strong support at $2.
ATOM/USDT
Cosmos (ATOM) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $34 on Jan. 1. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover, indicating that bulls have the upper hand.
ATOM/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price sustains above $34, the bullish momentum could pick up further and the ATOM/USDT pair could rise to $38 and later to $43.28. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls are in control.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks and closes below $34, it will suggest that bears are attempting to trap the aggressive bulls. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA ($28).
If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle but if the pair breaks below the moving averages, the decline could extend to $25.
ATOM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting that bulls have the upper hand. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will signal that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
The up-move could resume on a break and close above $37. Conversely, if bears pull the price below the 20-EMA, it may lead to profit-booking from short-term traders. That may pull the price down to the 50-SMA.
ONE/USDT
Harmony (ONE) has reached the downtrend line where the bears are likely to mount a stiff resistance. If the price turns down from the current level, the altcoin could dip to the 20-day EMA ($0.24).
ONE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish and traders are accumulating on dips. The bulls will then again attempt to push the price above the downtrend line.
If they succeed, it will suggest the start of a new up-move. The first target on the upside is $0.34 and a break above it could result in a retest at $0.38. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and breaks below $0.21.
ONE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The four-hour chart shows the formation of a cup-and-handle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $0.29. This reversal setup has a pattern target at $0.38. It is unlikely to be a straight dash to the target objective because bears are likely to mount a strong resistance at $0.34.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it could drop to the moving averages. If this support cracks, the ONE/USDT pair could decline to $0.21. A bounce off this support could keep the pair range-bound between $0.21 and $0.27 for some time.
Bitcoin and most major altcoins are attempting a recovery from their strong support levels, indicating that traders continue to buy on dips.
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are attempting a rebound off their respective support levels, indicating that buyers continue to accumulate on dips.
Data from Coinglass shows that 9,925 Bitcoin left Coinbase Pro, the professional trading arm of Coinbase, on Dec. 30, a possible sign of institutional buying. This is in sharp contrast to the strong inflows seen in Binance and OKEx. Several analysts believe that institutional buying could pick up in January.
Economist and trader Alex Krüger expects a Bitcoin rally in early January based on fund flows. He also highlighted that January has produced positive results for Bitcoin between 2018 and 2021, with gains ranging from 7% to 36%.
While investors debate about the next possible direction of the crypto markets, MicroStrategy has continued to accumulate Bitcoin on dips. The business intelligence firm purchased 1,914 Bitcoin between Dec. 9 and Dec. 29, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The recent purchase has boosted the company’s holdings to 124,391 Bitcoin.
Could Bitcoin lead a strong recovery in the crypto markets in the new year? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin bounced off the $45,456 support and has risen above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ($47,826). However, the bulls are likely to face a strong challenge at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($49,096).
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on every minor rally. That will increase the possibility of a break below $45,456. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the strong support zone at $42,000 to $40,000.
The relative strength index (RSI) is forming a possible positive divergence, which suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing.
If bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $51,936.33. A break and close above this resistance could start an up-move to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $55,000 and then to the 61.8% retracement level at $58,686.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) has bounced off the strong support zone at $3,643.73 to $3,503.68. The bulls will now try to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($3,952), which is an important level to watch out for.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make another attempt to sink the price below the support zone.
A break and close below the 200-day SMA ($3,365) may indicate the start of a deeper correction to $2,800. This negative view will be negated if the price breaks and sustains above $4,200. The ETH/USDT pair could then rise to $4,488 and later to $4,868.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) is attempting a bounce off the strong support at $500. The recovery is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($540). If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. A break and close below $500 could intensify selling and the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the 200-day SMA ($445).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the pair above $575. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $617 and later to the overhead resistance zone at $669.30 to $691.80.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) is attempting to bounce off $167.88. The relief rally is likely to face strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($182). The RSI is in the negative zone and the 20-day EMA is sloping down gradually, indicating that bears are at an advantage.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down and dips below the $167.88 support, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $148.04. The bulls may try to defend this level but if the support gives way, the pair could start its downward journey toward the 200-day SMA ($128).
This negative view will invalidate if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA and the overhead resistance at $204.75. The pair could then rise to the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern. A break and close above this level could clear the path for a retest of the all-time high at $259.90.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) broke and closed below the 20-day EMA ($1.38) on Dec. 29 but the buyers have not yet given up. They are attempting to push the price back above the 20-day EMA.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line of the descending channel. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from the resistance line, the pair could extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days.
A break and close above the channel will be the first indication of a possible change in trend. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the pair could drop to $1.18. This is an important level to watch out for because if it cracks, the pair could drop to $1.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) is range-bound between $1 and $0.75. The price bounced off $0.80 on Dec. 30 and the bulls will now attempt to push the price back above the 20-day EMA ($0.88).
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($0.94) and then to the overhead resistance at $1. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above this resistance to signal the start of a sustained recovery.
The 20-day EMA is turning down and the RSI is below 45, indicating that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the pair below $0.75. A close below this level could clear the path for a decline to $0.60.
LUNA/USDT
Terra’s LUNA token bounced off the 20-day EMA ($81) on Dec. 30, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will now attempt to push the price to the all-time high at $103.60. A break and close above this resistance will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend that could reach $135.26 and then $150.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $93.81 and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders are closing their positions on rallies. The LUNA/USDT pair could then drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $71.61.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off the minor support at $98 on Dec. 30 and the bulls are now attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($107).
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line where the bears may mount stiff resistance. A break and close above this level will be the first sign that the correction may be over.
The pair could then rise to $128. If bulls thrust the price above this resistance, it will complete a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. The pair could first retest the all-time high at $147 and then attempt a rally to the pattern target at $177.50.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $98, the pair could drop to $75.50.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) broke below the 20-day EMA ($28) on Dec. 28 and the bears have successfully warded off attempts by the bulls to push the price back above the moving averages.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the DOT/USDT pair below the $25 to $22.66 support zone. If that happens, the selling could pick up momentum and the decline could extend to $16.81.
Alternatively, if the price rises above the moving averages, the buyers will try to propel the pair above $31.49. If they manage to do that, it could open the doors for a possible rally to $39.50 and later to $43.56.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.17) on Dec. 28 but the bears could not challenge the major support at $0.15. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.19. A break and close above this level will signal the possible start of a new up-move that could reach the 200-day SMA ($0.23).
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the pair below $0.15. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the pair could plunge to $0.13 and eventually to the psychological support at $0.10.
Ethereum tested USD 3,800, XRP dropped to USD 0.85.
BTT and MIOTA gained over 12%.
Bitcoin price remained in a bearish zone below the USD 50,000 level. BTC extended decline below the USD 47,500 level before recovering higher. It is currently (04:19 UTC) trading near USD 48,000 and remains at a risk of more downsides.
Similarly, most major altcoins gained bearish momentum. ETH traded below the USD 3,800, while XRP tested USD 0.850. ADA extended decline and spiked below USD 1.40 before recovering.
Total market capitalization
Source: tradingview.com
Bitcoin price
After a close below USD 50,000, bitcoin price extended decline. BTC broke the USD 48,500 support to move further into a bearish zone. The price even tested USD 47,400 and is currently consolidating losses. On the downside, an initial support is near the USD 47,400 level. The next major support is near USD 47,000, below which the price could dive to USD 45,500.
On the upside, the price might face resistance near the USD 48,800 level. The next resistance is near the USD 49,200 zone, above which the price could revisit USD 50,000.
Ethereum price
Ethereum price also followed a similar pattern and extended decline below USD 3,920. ETH even broke the USD 3,850 support level. The next key support is near the USD 3,800 level, below which the price might dive to USD 3,680.
On the upside, the price could struggle near USD 3,880. The next key resistance is near the USD 3,920 level, above which the price could test USD 4,000.
ADA, BNB, SOL, DOGE, and XRP price
Cardano (ADA) gained pace below the USD 1.45 support level. It even spiked below USD 1.40 before recovering higher. If the bulls gain strength, there could be a move towards the USD 1.48 level.
Binance coin (BNB) tested the USD 525 support level before correcting higher. The price is now consolidating near USD 540. The main hurdle on the upside is near the USD 550 level, above which the price could accelerate in the near term.
Solana (SOL) declined 4% and there was a clear move below the USD 185 level. It even traded below USD 180. The next major support is near the USD 172 level. Any more losses might send the price towards the USD 165 level.
DOGE tested the USD 0.172 support zone. The price is correcting losses and approaching the USD 0.180 level. A close above USD 0.180 is a must for a move towards the USD 0.188 level. If not, it could revisit USD 0.172.
XRP price settled below the USD 0.90 pivot level. The price even tested the USD 0.850 level. If the bears remain in action, XRP could test USD 0.820. If there is a fresh increase, it could test the USD 0.90 resistance.
Other altcoins market today
Many altcoins are down over 6%, including ICX, ZEC, AAVE, KSM, XTZ, RVN, LINK, TFUEL, IOTX, AUDIO, STX, AR, and COMP. Meanwhile, MIOTA jumped 15%, reaching the USD 1.50 level and increasing its weekly gains to almost 14%. BTT hit USD 0.0030, after rallying 12% in a day and a week.
Overall, bitcoin price is consolidating above the USD 47,200 level. If BTC fails to stay above USD 47,200, it could slide further towards the USD 45,500 level.
The past few hours have seen Bitcoin tumble from $52k to trade at $49.7k, at the time of writing, a decline of around 4.5%. The altcoin market also took a strong hit as selling pressure climbed.
Ethereum Classic shed nearly 5.5% of its value in the same period of time. In fact, it seemed likely that ETC would be forced to revisit the $33.4-lows.
The bounce from $28.12 to $41.9 in early December was used to plot the Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow). The 38.2% retracement level at $36.64 acted as support at the time of writing, but this defense could be tenuous if selling intensifies in the coming hours.
In mid-December too, ETC slipped under $36.64 and quickly fell all the way to $33.4.
Ethereum Classic was once more rejected at the 23.6% level, the $38.6-mark. The Visible Range Volume Profile showed that the price was inside the value area. The Point of Control (POC) lay at $35.75.
The rejection at $38.6 likely means ETC can drop as low as $33 in the coming weeks.
Rationale
Bullish momentum has stalled. A bearish divergence (white) was seen as the price made higher highs but momentum (RSI) made lower highs.
The RSI fell swiftly below the neutral 50-zone. It was at 38.15 and falling, at the time of writing. The 36.45-mark has seen the RSI bounce somewhat over the past month, and is an area to watch on the RSI 4-hour chart.
The RSI was able to climb as high as 70 but no farther, and the candlesticks pictured upper wicks that meant buyers tried and failed to push the price past the $38.6-mark.
Another thing to note here is that the $38-region was an area of importance, not only due to the Fibonacci level there. In June and July earlier this year, Ethereum Classic tested the $38-$39 area for demand before embarking on strong rallies to $62 and $75, respectively.
On higher timeframes, this area is hugely significant. Another rejection in this area will mean sellers remain strong.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s direction will be crucial for Ethereum Classic in the days to come. However, Bitcoin itself faces a lot of resistance until the $54k area, as does ETC in the $38-$39 area.
Hence, for ETC, $38 is an area to sell at, and $33.4-$33.8 is an area to look for buys.
Trading stocks and cryptocurrencies can be complicated, but here are a few tips on how to get started.
It doesn’t matter how experienced you are at trading because nothing can be done to protect a person against the might of cryptocurrencies’ price swings. Currently, Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility, the standard measure for daily fluctuations, stands at 64% annualized. As a comparison, the same metric for the S&P 500 stands at 17%, while the volatility spec for WTI crude oil is at 54%.
However, it is possible to avoid the psychological impact of an unexpected 25% intraday price swing by following five basic rules. Fortunately, these tactics do not require advanced tools or large sums of money to hold through periods of high volatility.
Plan to refrain from withdrawing money in less than 2 years
Let’s assume that you’ve got $5,000 to invest, but there’s a good possibility that you might need at least $2,000 of that amount within 12 months for travel or car maintenance or some other task.
The worst thing you can do is do a 100% allocation in crypto because you might need to sell your position at the worst time ever, maybe at a cycle bottom. Even if one plans to use the proceeds in decentralized finance (DeFi) pools, there’s always the risk of impairment losses or hacks that compromise access to the funds.
In short, any funds allocated to cryptocurrencies should have a two-year vesting period.
Always dollar cost average
Even professional traders get swept away by the fear of missing out (FOMO), ceding to an urgency to build a position as quickly as possible. But, if everyone is getting 50% and higher returns consistently and even meme coins are posting stellar returns, how can you stand aside and merely watch?
The DCA strategy consists of buying the same dollar amount every week or month, regardless of the market’s movements; for example, buying $200 every Monday afternoon for a year removes the anxiety and pressure caused by the constant need to decide whether to add a position.
Avoid buying all the positions in less than three or four weeks at all costs. Remember, the crypto adoption rate is still in its infancy.
Don’t use too many indicators when conducting analysis
There are countless technical indicators, including the moving average, Fibonacci retracement levels, Bollinger Bands, the directional movement index, the Ichimoku Cloud, the parabolic SAR, the relative strength index and more. If you consider that each one has multiple setups, there are endless possibilities for tracking these indicators.
The best traders are experienced enough to know that reading the market correctly is more important than picking the best indicator. Some prefer to track correlations to traditional markets, while others focus exclusively on crypto price charts. There’s no right and wrong here, except for trying to track five different indicators simultaneously.
Markets are dynamic, and in crypto, that is especially true considering how fast things change.
Learn when to step aside
Eventually, you will read the market incorrectly while finding bottoms or altcoin seasons. Every trader gets it wrong sometimes and there’s no need to compensate by immediately increasing the bet size to recoup the losses. That is precisely the opposite of what one should be doing.
Whenever you catch a “bad break,” step aside for a couple of days. The psychological impact of losses is a heavy burden and will negatively impact your capacity to think clearly. Even if a clear opportunity arises, let that one slide. Go for a walk, or try to organize your life aside from trading.
Truly successful traders are not the most gifted, but those who survive the longest.
Continue to invest in winners
This might be the hardest lesson of them all because investors have a natural tendency to take profit on our winning positions. As discussed previously, crypto market volatility is extremely high, so aiming for a 30% gain will not cover your previous (or future) losses.
Instead of selling winners, traders should be buying more of those. Of course, one should not neglect the market data or the overall sentiment but if your expectations remain bullish, then consider adding to the position until the overall market signals some form of weakness.
One will eventually catch a 300% or 500% gain by being brave and holding on to the most profitable positions. These are the returns you expected when entering such a risky market, so don’t be afraid when they pop up.
Every rule is meant to be broken
If a roadmap to cryptocurrency trading success existed, many people would have found it after many years and the returns would quickly fade. That is why you should always be ready to break your own rules every once in a while.
Do not follow investment advice from influencers or experienced money managers blindly. Everyone has their own risk appetite and capacity to add positions after an unexpected setback. But, more importantly, make sure to take care of yourself along the way!
Data showed volatility hitting BTC/USD overnight on Saturday.
The pair had reached $51,500 before starting to retrace, this culminating in a dip to $49,644. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was back circling $50,000.
The move came in tandem with a rise in inflows to major exchange Binance, with order book data showing a new wall of resistance being built at $50,000.
Binance order book heatmap chart. Source: Material Indicators
The behavior points to a large-volume investor shaping market bias, and Binance was already the source of suspicion over such activity in recent days.
“This looks like a new player,” data analysis account Material Scientist noted in comments on Binance’s rapidly-changing order book setup.
Binance BTC balance chart. Source: Coinglass
Overall, exchange balances have crept up 60,000 BTC beginning Dec. 22, from 1.69 million to 1.75 million BTC, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass shows.
Ethereum preserves $4,000 defense zone
In some mild relief for altcoin traders, most large-cap tokens remained relatively unscathed after Bitcoin’s latest dip.
Ether (ETH) was still above $4,000 at the time of writing.
The year 2021 has undoubtedly been a bull market with Bitcoin (BTC) raising the all-time high price bar several times this year. But not all crypto assets have performed equally. There have been a number of losers in addition to the majority of winners in terms of price gains.
Since the beginning of 2021, total crypto market capitalization has gained 190% from just under $800 million to over $2.3 trillion today. It hit an all-time high of just over $3 trillion in early November.
The privacy-focused cryptocurrency Monero has also fallen heavily down the market cap charts this year as a number of major exchanges delisted digital assets that offer anonymity.
XMR prices have mustered just 17% this year and have come nowhere near their January 2018 all-time high of $524. Currently trading at around $183, XMR has slumped 66% from that peak resulting in a fall to 49th in the coin cap tables. Monero has lost 30% against Bitcoin since the beginning of the year.
XMR/USD YTD – coingecko.com
Starting position: 16 — Final position: 49
To put these gains and losses into perspective, Bitcoin is up 67.5% year-to-date (YTD) year while Ethereum gained 440%.
As the recovery window opened up, Binance coin and Tron marked a decent recovery to reclaim their crucial support levels. On the other hand, MATIC entered into price discovery to poke its ATH on 23 December.
MATIC
After continuing its oscillation in an ascending triangle (yellow), MATIC finally broke out of it. After the expected breakout, it encountered the price discovery phase and formed a rising wedge (white) on its 4-hour chart.
MATIC registered over 32% gains (from the 20 December low) and marked a powerful rally to breach crucial resistance (previous) points at the 2.195 and 2.529-mark. Consequently, the altcoin poked its ATH on 23 December while the Supertrend continually flashed buy signals.
Although the price touched its ATH, the OBV could not even match up to its 8 December high. At press time, MATIC traded at $2.527. The RSI saw a steep plunge and seemed to find support near the midline. Further, the AO preferred the buyers but depicted their decreasing power.
Binance Coin (BNB)
Over the past few days, BNB formed an ascending channel (white)as the bulls breached a strong resistance point (previous) at the $532-level.
Presently, the price action saw resistance at the $550-mark as bulls endeavored to retest it. The immediate testing level stood near the lower channel that concurred with the 20-SMA (red).
At press time, BNB traded at $546.6. The RSI stood at the 58-mark after preferring the bulls. The DMI also resonated with the RSI, but the ADX displayed a weak directional trend for the altcoin.
Tron (TRX)
TRX witnessed a symmetrical triangle breakdown on 17 December while the fear sentiment surged. Since then, the alt steadily marked lower lows and lower highs until 23 December after oscillating in a down-channel (yellow).
After losing the crucial $0.078-level (four-month support) the bulls quickly reclaimed this mark after an 8.09% jump (from the 20 December low). As a result, the Supertrend finally flipped into the green zone.
At press time, TRX traded at $0.08157. The RSI was able to sustain itself above the midline after a sharp uptrend. The Volume Oscillator saw lower highs, indicating a weak bullish move. To top that up, the ADX swayed into the weak directional trend zone.
