Gold slipped below $4,000 on Thursday, now 28% below its January record of $5,598. The weekly chart printed its first red Gaussian channel bar since October 2023, strengthening the case for a confirmed gold bear market. War headlines have failed to lift the metal, while surging oil prices and rising bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to drag gold lower.
Gold Price Outlook
US airstrikes on Iranian military sites and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have historically led to higher gold prices. However, expensive oil is now feeding inflation expectations, pushing the Fed toward tightening. According to CME FedWatch data, markets now price roughly 76% odds of a September rate hike, up from 57% a week ago. The June FOMC minutes also deepened the pressure, with policymakers split nine to eight in favor of at least one 2026 hike.
Bear Market Signals
The weekly chart shows a structural breakdown rather than a routine dip, with the Gaussian channel indicator flipping red for the first time since October 2023. The price has also fallen below the channel itself, losing its long-term 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $4,333. A drawdown of 28% from the peak is well beyond the common 20% bear-market threshold. The price currently tests the 0.5 retracement near $3,943, with the next major support at the 0.618 golden pocket at $3,552.
XAU Price Prediction
The daily chart complicates the bearish picture, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day line on June 26, forming a death cross. However, momentum quietly improves, with the daily RSI carving higher lows through late June and July. A bounce would likely target the $4,300-$4,400 resistance, about 7% above the current price. Rejection there would expose the golden pocket at $3,552, an 11.4% drop from today’s levels.
Based on reporting from crypto.news.
