Bitcoin remains in deep value territory after trading below two major on-chain cost-basis levels for about five months, according to Glassnode. The firm said BTC is still below the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200. These levels matter because they track the average price paid by active investors and recent buyers. When Bitcoin trades below both, many market participants hold coins at a loss.
Market Pressure
Glassnode data shows that long-term holder loss realization has increased sharply since February. The share of total realized value from long-term holder losses rose from 15% in early February to 43%. Daily long-term holder realized losses recently reached about $280 million, the highest level since December 2022.
ETF Flows
Bitcoin ETF flows remain another weak point, with the 30-day average of spot Bitcoin ETF net flows improving from about $193 million in daily outflows to $88.9 million, but still remaining negative. However, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, ending a 10-day outflow streak.
Derivatives Data
Derivatives data gives a mixed picture, with the options open-interest put/call ratio dropping to 0.56, its lowest level of 2026, suggesting short demand has eased. Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the later stage of a bear-market bottoming process, but confirmation still needs three conditions: lower long-term holder selling, stable ETF flows, and a recovery above key cost-basis levels
Based on reporting from crypto.news.
