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Bank of America Says CBDCs “Are An Inevitable Evolution”

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Bank of America Says CBDCs “Are An Inevitable Evolution”

A recent note from Bank of America analysts said that a CBDC would differ from digital currencies currently available because it would be the liability of the Federal Reserve, not a commercial bank.

It appears that the U.S. will finally be moving forward to create its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) according to the Bank of America.

Bank of America crypto strategists Andrew Moss and Alkesh Shah wrote in a Jan. 24 note that CBDCs “are an inevitable evolution of today’s electronic currencies,” according to a Bloomberg report. The analysts wrote:

“We expect stablecoin adoption and use for payments to increase significantly over the next several years as financial institutions explore digital asset custody and trading solutions and as payments companies incorporate blockchain technology into their platforms.”

Meanwhile, a Jan. 20 report titled “Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation” from the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) weighed up the benefits and disadvantages of the U.S. potentially adopting a CBDC.

It considered whether a CBDC could potentially “improve the safe and effective domestic payments system” for households and businesses as “the payments system continues to evolve,” possibly resulting in “faster payment options between countries.”

In the meantime, Shah and Moss stated that the use of digital currencies issued by private companies is likely to grow. Currently, the liability for existing forms of digital currency like online bank accounts or payment apps belongs to private entities, such as commercial banks.

However, a CBDC would be different in this respect because it would be the liability of a central bank such as the Federal Reserve, wrote the FRB in a statement about the report.

It also pointed out potential difficulties including preserving financial stability, protecting the privacy of users, and combatting illicit transactions. The Fed has opened to the floor for public comment on these issues until May 20.

A CBDC is a digital version of a country’s fiat currency, such as the U.S. dollar. They started to step into the spotlight during 2020 when The Bahamas launched the world’s first CBDC, the “Sand Dollar.”

Meanwhile, China’s central bank is in the process of developing a digital yuan wallet, as it steps up its efforts to create a digital currency. In April 2021, Sweden’s central bank completed the first phase of its “e-krona” digital currency pilot.

Ripple Argues That The SEC Is Only Trying To Prolong The Case In Court Ruling

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Ripple Argues That The SEC Is Only Trying To Prolong The Case In Court Ruling

The tussle to get regulatory clarity for the crypto industry continues as Ripple and the SEC slug it out in court. Ripple has filed an objection to the SEC’s recent motion to be given more time to contest the recent ruling made by the presiding judge in the case, Judge Sarah Netburn. Ripple argues that the SEC is only trying to prolong the case and contradict itself with its latest motion.

Next

1. The controversy on Hinman’s speech continues

Members of the Ripple community and holders of the disputed XRP token have been taking apart Hinman’s speech to point out that contrary to the SEC’s claim that it was Hinman’s opinion, it does not appear that to be the case.

Staunch XRP supporter, John Deaton, recently pointed to an interview that Hinman gave to CNBC after the speech where he used “we” continuously while referring to how the statements he made in his speech were arrived at. Community members who had marked the ruling for the SEC to hand in the drafts of the speech are now asking why the SEC is objecting to the ruling if the speech did not reflect their stance.

Next

Solana Price May Fall to $70 a Token in The Coming Weeks

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Solana Price May Fall to $70 a Token in The Coming Weeks

A confirmed head and shoulders pattern on SOL’s daily chart points toward a drop to $70.

Solana (SOL) price may fall to $70 a token in the coming weeks as a head and shoulders setup emerged on the daily timeframe and possibly points toward a 45%+ decline.

The chart below shows that SOL price rallied to nearly $217 in September 2021, dropped to a support level near $134 and then moved to establish a new record high of $260 in November 2021. Earlier this week, the price fell back to test the same $134-support level before breaking to a 2022 low at $87.73.

SOL/USD weekly price chart featuring head and shoulders setup. Source: TradingView

This phase of price action appears to have formed a head and shoulders setup, a bearish reversal pattern containing three consecutive peaks, with the middle one around $257 (called the “head”) coming out to be higher than the other two around the $200 to $210 (left and right shoulders).

Meanwhile, SOL’s three peaks have stood atop a common support level at $134, called the “neckline.” A fall below it signals an extended downtrend to the level at length equal to the maximum distance between the head and the neckline.

In SOL’s case, the distance is around $137, which puts its head and shoulders price target at nearly $170.

The trend so far

The bearish outlook came as SOL price dropped by more than 22% this week and currently the altcoin is around 55% from its record high, much in line with other large-cap digital assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). 

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

At the center of the ongoing crypto market decline is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to unwind its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program followed by three or more interest rate hikes spread throughout 2022.

The central bank’s loose monetary policies had assisted in pumping the crypto market’s valuation from $128 billion since March 2020 to as high as $3 trillion in Nov. 2021. Therefore, the evidence of tapering has been influencing investors to limit their exposure in over-pumped markets, including Solana, which had gained nearly 12,500% since March 2020.

As a result, if the crypto market continues declining in the sessions ahead, SOL will also be at risk of validating its head and shoulders setup.

SOL’s short term outlook

While SOL’s longer timeframe chart leans toward a prolonged bearish setup, its short-term outlook looks comparatively bullish. 

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

That is primarily due to two factors. First, SOL price has fallen to a critical support level of $116 that was instrumental in limiting its downside attempts in September 2021. And second, its daily relative strength index (RSI) dropped to below 30 — a classic buy signal.

Ethereum: A Wave of Relentless Selling

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Ethereum: A Wave of Relentless Selling

Ethereum was struggling to wade out of the $3300 area. There appeared to be no buyers in sight and bidders have been overwhelmed once the price fell below $3287 and almost retested the same level as resistance. Ethereum’s movement on the chart would depend on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin was not strong on the charts either. It would not be surprising if Ethereum saw a further 20% loss from where it was trading at the time of writing.

Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView

Cryptocurrencies have taken a nosedive in value following global stocks taking a hit and major indices such as the Nasdaq Composite having a bad start to 2022. This showed crypto was not as decoupled from the traditional markets as most hoped for, and that crypto remains a risk-on asset that investors flee from in times of uncertainty.

On the charts, Ethereum has lost around 25% since it retested the $3280 area a couple of days ago. Moreover, the weekend had arrived, and weekends generally have lower volume than weekdays. This meant a volatile move in either direction can not be ruled out.

For Ethereum, the 70.7% retracement level at $2632 was flipped to resistance, and next on the bears’ agenda was the $2382 level. Lower in the charts, Ethereum can expect $2382 and $2049 to act as support levels in the days to come.

Rationale

Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView

Although the hourly RSI appeared to form a higher low, even as the price formed a lower low (bullish divergence), this was simply not enough evidence of a shift in momentum. What this meant instead was possibly some sideways trading for Ethereum at the $2470 area. The RSI would likely climb upward during this phase, before diving lower once more.

The OBV showed that heavy selling volume was present in recent days.

Conclusion

Weekend volatility can not be ruled out. Yet at the time of writing, the momentum was strongly bearish on the lower timeframes. The $2382 and $2049 levels can be watched for a bounce.

Russia’s Central Bank Suggests Making Crypto Trading, Mining and Usage Illegal

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Russia's Central Bank Suggests Making Crypto Trading, Mining and Usage Illegal
Source: https://www.euronews.com/

Russia’s central bank suggests making crypto trading, mining and usage illegal. Owning crypto would be allowed.

Russia must ban cryptocurrencies, the country’s central bank said in a report released Thursday.

The report, “Cryptocurrencies: trends, risks, measures,” was presented during an online press conference with Elizaveta Danilova, the director of the Bank of Russia’s Financial Stability Department.

The report says cryptocurrencies are volatile and widely used in illegal activities such as fraud. By offering an outlet for people to take their money out of the national economy, they risk undermining it and making the regulator’s job of maintaining optimal monetary policies harder, the report said.

The bank, therefore, said Russia needs new laws and regulations to effectively ban crypto-related activities. The bank is not suggesting banning ownership of crypto by private citizens, Danilova said.

Issuance and trading using the country’s financial infrastructure, which could pose a risk to Russia’s financial stability, however, should be stopped. The bank said in November that Russians conduct over $5 billion worth of crypto transactions in a year, and that level did not pose a risk. An existing ban on using crypto for payments should be reinforced, and punishment should be introduced for buying or selling goods, services and labor by Russian individuals and businesses, the report suggests.

Russian institutional investors should not be allowed to invest in crypto assets and no Russian financial organizations or infrastructure should be used for cryptocurrency transactions. The Bank of Russia has already barred mutual funds from investing in cryptocurrencies. Now, it is suggesting introducing penalties for breaking the ban.

Cryptocurrency mining, which has flourished in Russia over the past few years and even earned some nods of approval from the country’s parliament last year, also came under fire.

Mining creates fresh supply of cryptocurrencies, so it stimulates the demand for other crypto services such as exchanges and “creates a non-productive electricity expenditure, which undermines the energy supply of residential buildings, social infrastructure and industrial objects, as well as the environmental agenda of the Russian Federation,” the report said.

The “optimal solution” would be to ban crypto mining in Russia, the regulator said in the report.

Miners said the stance was not a surprise. The report is a reiteration of the bank’s existing position, and final policy is likely to include input from other stakeholders.

The probability of a complete ban of the entire cryptocurrency industry is “negligible,” said Roman Zabuga, the PR director of mining hosting provider BitRiver.

“This is the Russian central bank reiterating their old sentiment ahead of upcoming working group formation,” Compass Mining CEO Whit Gibbs told CoinDesk.

The crypto market also seemed unperturbed. Bitcoin was trading about $43,000 at publication time, up more than 3% since midnight UTC, according to TradingView data.

Still, if it is enacted, the ban would mark the end for big crypto businesses, especially mining farms, according to Sergey Mendeleev, executive director of a crypto investment platform InDeFi. “I’m sure it will be more like the Chinese variant, with no options or loopholes,” he said.

“The consequences will be bad not for the [crypto] industry but for our future, it will be another step towards Russia lagging behind in technology even more than it is now,” Mendeleev said. The best technology professionals and entrepreneurs would probably leave Russia alongside a big chunk of investments, he said.

The central bank plans to monitor cryptocurrency transactions by Russian residents and coordinate with the countries where cryptocurrency exchanges are registered to get information on transactions by Russian users, the report says.

The regulator said it believes that in the future, enhancing the current banking infrastructure, as well as introducing the digital ruble, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) currently in the works by the Bank of Russia, will satisfy the need of Russians for fast and cheap digital payment options, effectively giving them advantages of crypto without crypto.

As for the investment appeal of crypto assets, that can be replaced by the digital assets, which will be issued in Russia under the law on the digital assets, in effect since the summer 2020, the Bank of Russia said.

The bank said financial market participants have until March 1 to comment on the report.

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume, said it’s looking to improve communications with the regulator.

“We always welcome dialogue on crypto and blockchain and we hope that the advisory report will initiate discussions between the Central Bank of Russia and representatives of the cryptocurrency market,” the company told CoinDesk through a press representative. “Binance goes above and beyond industry standards to detect these bad actors through proactive measures and collaboration with public and private sector stakeholders.”

Bitcoin dropped to new lows at $36K

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Bitcoin dropped to new lows at $36K
Source: https://nypost.com/

BTC price dropped to new lows at $36,000, leading analysts to call for a “Hail Mary close above $39,600” to stave off a bearish shift in Bitcoin’s market structure.

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to sell-off and the knock-on effect is an even sharper correction in altcoins and DeFi tokens. At the time of writing, BTC price has sank to its lowest level in 6 months and most analysts are not optimistic about an immediate turn around. 

Data shows that a wave of selling that began late in the day on Jan. 20 continued into midday on Friday when BTC hit a low of $36,600.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a check-in with what analysts have to say about the current downturn and what may be in store for the coming weeks.

Traders expect consolidation between $38,000 and $43,000

The sudden price drop in BTC has many crypto traders predicting various dire outcomes along the lines of an extended bear market. Others like independent market analyst ‘Rekt Capital’, are not so quick to jump the gun and declare that all is lost.

As shown in the following chart posted by Rekt Capital, “the recent BTC rejection means that BTC is now residing at the lower region of its current $38,000-$43,100 range.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter.

According to Rekt Capital, “Bitcoin is just consolidating inside the $38,000-$43,100 range,” but needs to hold this support level to avoid dropping down into a lower consolidation range.

Rekt Capital said,

“Technically, the $38,000 support area is what separates BTC from entering the $28,000-$38,000 consolidation range. Bitcoin last consolidated in said range in Q1 and Q2 of 2021.”

Head and shoulders pattern confirmed

Analysis of the BTC price action from a purely technical point of view was touched on by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, who pointed out that the “giant head and shoulders pattern for BTC is now completed with the neckline broken with BTC at $38,300.”

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

From a theoretical standpoint, Lifchitz noted that this pattern predicts a possible drawdown as low as $20,000, but he stated that the “fall has generally been less than that” and suggested that “the $31,000 region could definitely be in sight.”

From a fundamental point of view, Lifchitz noted multiple factors that are creating headwinds for BTC, including tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve, chatter from the EU regulators looking to ban proof-of-work mining, profit-taking from late 2021 and the continued uncertainty about the economic future as it relates to the Covid pandemic.

Lifchitz said,

“Therefore for Bitcoin, a move down to the low-mid $30,000 could be definitely in the cards soon before real dip-buyers show up.”

Traders look to scoop up BTC at $30,000

A look at how traders have responded to this drawdown as compared to the pullback in June of 2021 was provided by analyst and Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart highlighting the major support zones for each period of weakness.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

van de Poppe said,

“Back in June → People are waiting for $23,000 to $25,000 to buy. Right now → People are waiting for $30,000 to buy. Similar fake breakout on the upside to nuke afterward into support.”

A similar point of view was offered by trader and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Fomocap’, who posted the following chart outlining how BTC could perform in the days ahead.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Fomocap said,

“Relief bounce to $44,000 – $42,000 retest, if rejection then $35,000 – $33,000. What do you think?”

Bulls need a close above $39,600

A final bit of insight into was offered by crypto trader Scott Melker, who posted the following chart showing the price breakdown below a key level that must be recovered.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Melker said,

“Bulls looking for a Hail Mary close above $39,600 on the daily. A close below (especially on weekly) is a break in market structure, lower low etc. Bears showing no mercy.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.801 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 40.4%.

Ethereum’s High Gas fee Is Putting a Big Risk For The Smart Contracts Platform

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Ethereum’s High Gas fee Is Putting a Big Risk For The Smart Contracts Platform

In the latest report, banking giant JPMorgan has said that Ethereum’s high gas fee and network congestion are putting a big risk for the smart contracts platform. JPMorgan said that this could be a “problem for Ethereum’s valuation”.

It specifically added that Ethereum could be losing its NFT market share to rival Solana which has been gaining massive ground over the last year. If we look at the data, Ethereum’s NFT market share has already dropped to 80% from 95% at the beginning of 2021.

In the report, first shared by Business Insider, JPMorgan said that NFTs are the “fastest-growing universe in the crypto ecosystem”. Thus, If the loss of its NFT share starts looking more sustained in 2022, that would become a bigger problem for Ethereum’s valuation”.

The JPMorgan analysts also noted that data shows NFT players have been moving from Ethereum to Solana amid the latter’s faster transaction speeds and low costs.

1. Ethereum At the Risk of Losing DeFi Dominance

Another area that we need to focus upon is Ethereum’s falling share in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). Last week, in a note to clients, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote:

“It looks like, similar to DeFi [decentralized finance] apps, congestion and high gas fees has been inducing NFT applications to use other blockchains”.

Ethereum has a big challenge ahead of it to quickly scale to the PoS Ethereum 2.0 or end up losing its market share to other competitors like Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, and others.

Google Pay Hired PayPal To Explore Crypto

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Google Pay Hired PayPal To Explore Crypto

The tech giant has hired a PayPal veteran to help with the expansion of Google Pay as it sets its sights on the future, including plans to explore crypto.

Google has hired a former PayPal executive to help bolster Google Pay, with plans to expand into the crypto space.

Arnold Goldberg has been given the task of running Google’s payments division as part of a company-wide push into financial services, including crypto.

Google’s president of commerce Bill Ready told Bloomberg that:

“Crypto is something we pay a lot of attention to […] As user demand and merchant demand evolves, we’ll evolve with it.”

Google Pay is an online payment system developed by Google to allow in-app, online and contactless purchases on mobile devices including Android phones, tablets and watches.

As part of the overhaul, Google will focus more on being a “comprehensive digital wallet” that includes digital tickets, airline passes and vaccine passports, Ready said.

Following the news, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to a high of $42,478 (from a 24-hour low of $41,254) before falling back down to $41,887 at the time of writing according to Coinmarketcap.

Google has been dipping its toes in the crypto space for quite some time, partnering with several crypto companies through 2021. Ready said that the company plans to pursue more partnerships with more crypto companies.

In April 2021, Google Pay announced a new partnership with global crypto exchange Gemini. The update allowed Gemini users to purchase Bitcoin through Google Pay using fiat currency on a debit or credit card.

The tech giant also partnered with Coinbase in June, allowing customers of the exchange to pay for goods and services through Google Pay using their Coinbase Card. Users also were able to gain crypto rebates of up to 4% for their shopping.

In Oct, a partnership between crypto exchange Bakkt and Google allowed customers of the exchange to purchase goods and services using some select cryptocurrencies through their Google Pay wallet.

As for Paypal, it appears that the fintech company will be one man down as it explores the creation of its own stablecoin. Earlier this month, Paypal confirmed plans to launch “PayPal Coin,” which developer Steve Moser first found in the source code of the platform’s iPhone app.

This comes only three months after the tech giant axed its plans for a service called “Plex” that would allow users to create checking and savings accounts.

“We’re not a bank — we have no intention of being a bank,” Ready said about the decision to cut Plex. “Some past efforts, at times, would unwittingly wade into those spaces.”

Google Pay debuted in 2015, with a revamp in 2020 which transformed the platform into a hub where customers could track their expenses and hunt for discounts.

Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin Will Back Stronger

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Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin Will Back Stronger

Federal Reserve policy should mean markets see a long-awaited comedown of up to one fifth, says Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone.

Bitcoin (BTC) will soon no longer be a risk asset and investors should brace for a fresh price correction, says one of Bloomberg’s best-known analysts.

In an appearance on the Wolf of All Streets podcast on Jan. 18, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, sounded the alarm on global markets’ “up only” narrative.

McGlone: Bitcoin ‘least risky’ crypto bet

As Bitcoin struggles in 2022, those hoping for a dramatic return to form will be disappointed by McGlone’s mid-term forecast.

The United States Federal Reserve, he says, will all but guarantee an end to the limitless gains for stocks — and crypto, naturally correlated, will suffer too.

“The number one theme I’ve been using for months now is ‘Do not fight the Fed,'” he began.

“If you’re long risk assets, you are fighting the Fed, and cryptos are the riskiest assets. The key thing, remember, is that Bitcoin is the least risky among cryptos.”

As the Fed attempts to rein in inflation and dramatically decrease asset purchases, the outlook is thus much less appealing for risk assets in the near term. For McGlone, however, there is a silver lining when it comes to Bitcoin’s inherent appeal.

“I think it’s transitioning from a risk-on to a risk-off asset,” he continued, adding that he “thinks Bitcoin will come out better off” after the period of policy upheaval.

“Here’s my prediction: the markets pull back finally and we get a 10-20% correction in the stock market. All correlations are one, which is usually the way it works. Bitcoin comes out better off for it.”

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The Fed fights its balance sheet

McGlone, famous for his bullish takes on Bitcoin in the past, is meanwhile far from alone in his caution.

As Cointelegraph reported, even Bitcoin traders themselves are bracing for testing times ahead, while the analyst’s views were echoed earlier this month by Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives trading platform BitMEX.

“The loose US monetary conditions definitely influenced the meteoric rise in price (albeit a few months delayed),” he wrote about the Fed’s balance sheet in a blog post on policy and Bitcoin.

“Since M2% growth stalled, Bitcoin has traded sideways. If M2 is set to hit 0% — and possibly even go negative — in short order, the natural conclusion is that Bitcoin (absent any asymptotic growth in the number of users or transactions processed via the network) is likely to go much lower as well.”

An accompanying chart underscored the implications of a much more conservative atmosphere.

BTC/USD vs. U.S. M2 money supply chart (screenshot). Source: Arthur Hayes/ Medium

Crypto Job Posts On LinkedIn Grew Nearly 400% In 2021

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Crypto Job Posts On LinkedIn Grew Nearly 400% In 2021

Job postings with terms like “Bitcoin,” “Ethereum,” “blockchain” and “cryptocurrency” grew 395% in the United States last year.

It wasn’t just a bull run for prices last year. Careers in crypto outstripped price action in 2021, as crypto job searches soared by 395% in the United States alone, according to LinkedIn.

Crucially, the crypto industry outpaced the wider tech industry, which also saw remarkable development, almost doubling its number of job listings. However, at 98% growth, the tech industry dwindles in comparison to crypto jobs, which gained by a whopping 395%.

Furthermore, no industry was safe from “crypto-ization” in 2021. The LinkedIn News post offered valuable insight into crypto influencing other industries:

While most of the job postings were in software and finance, other industries are also seeing a rise in demand for crypto talent. These include professional services like accounting and consulting, as well as the staffing and computer hardware sectors.

For 2022, the growth trend looks set to continue. The biggest exchanges in crypto are brimming with job posts; Coinbase has over 250 openings, Kraken over 300, and the world’s most active exchange, Binance, lists more than 600 job posts. 

For Bitcoiners and Bitcoin (BTC) maximalists, there is a new resource — Bitcoiner jobs. A service dedicated to helping connect Bitcoiners with Bitcoin-only companies, it now offers almost 100 Satoshi-approved careers.

For those who are unable to switch jobs into crypto, a wider HR trend is crypto remuneration. The mayors of New York and Miami announced that they would take a portion of their pay in BTC in 2021, while seven NFL players have chosen crypto over cash salaries to date.

Nonetheless, while the crypto career switch appears to be gaining traction, the LinkedIn audience is not convinced. Most comments on the LinkedIn post were from bewildered onlookers wondering why crypto has value, and one aggrieved copywriter remonstrated the industry’s scammy nature.

Plus, given that Bitcoin price action has yet to impress in 2022, the crypto industry may struggle to sustain such high human resources growth levels.

In the 2018 bear market, several cryptocurrency companies laid off staff. In sum, BTC activity needs to pick up to continue to support job creation.