The Strait of Hormuz's ship traffic has significantly declined since March 2026, with the 7-day average falling short of the 60-ship threshold. According to IMF PortWatch data, the average has not reached 60 since March 3, with the latest reading at 12 on July 19. The contract's threshold of 60 is roughly two-thirds of the pre-disruption daily average of 91 transit calls.
The data shows that the traffic collapse was specific to the Strait of Hormuz, with other major chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait operating at near-normal levels. The Malacca Strait ran at 0.93 of its own average, while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ran at 1.06, compared to the Strait of Hormuz at 0.11.
Research Findings
A study of 43 tests found no correlation between the daily ship count and the daily price movement of the Polymarket ladder. The tests included two full lag scans, four other contracts, two levels checks, and seven re-specifications. The results showed that the price and the count moved on different clocks, with the market's largest slide coming in a week when the ships barely moved, and the ships' best fortnight coming while the price went down.
The study's findings are limited by the fact that the count is published on a delay, with the newest observation being four days behind the calendar. Additionally, AIS signals can go dark in a conflict, and PortWatch revises its published values, which can affect the accuracy of the data.
