A study of 95 goal-sized repricing episodes across 608 linked World Cup markets found that price shocks propagate through the market tree, but decay with distance. When a match market repriced 10 cents or more, the group-winner market moved with it 80.0% of the time, compared to 8.4% in the same window 24 hours earlier.
The co-move rate fades with distance from the match, with progression markets moving 49.5% of the time, top-scorer markets 15.8%, and the tournament-winner market 9.8%. The magnitude of the co-move also fades, from a median 63.3 cents on other lines in the same match to two tenths of a cent on the title.
Market Tree Analysis
These findings are based on a market-to-market measurement, using Polymarket prices from June 11 to July 4, 2026. Each rate is paired with the identical window 24 hours earlier, isolating the shock rather than the ordinary churn of an active market.
The market at the top of the tree, the tournament winner, mostly ignored these shocks, with the exception of a narrow window during the Round of 32. Across the group stage, the title market moved on just 2 of 80 shocks, while in the knockout stage it moved on 7 of 12.
The study's results have implications for anyone watching connected markets, suggesting that the event that swings a match market and its near neighbors leaves the distant ones nearly still.