BHP's copper division has generated $18.2 billion in EBITDA in FY26, accounting for 54% of group earnings and surpassing iron ore as the primary profit driver for the first time in the company's history. This shift is driven by a 35% rise in realized copper prices, with copper's underlying EBITDA nearly doubling from $12.3 billion to $18.2 billion year-over-year.
Copper Growth Plans
BHP has committed to 5% annual copper production growth through the mid-2030s, targeting approximately 2.5 million tons, roughly 50% above current levels. Over 55% of growth capital is now directed at copper projects, including Escondida New Concentrator and Copper South Australia Phase 1.
Market Implications
The copper pivot fundamentally alters how the market should price BHP, with margin superiority, structural demand tailwind, and pricing power asymmetry contributing to the shift. Copper's 70% segment margin dwarfs what iron ore typically delivers, lifting group EBITDA margins 6 percentage points to 59%. BHP Group Ltd ADR is trading at $88.37, with a market cap of $230.8 billion, EBITDA of $32.9 billion, and a dividend yield of 3.3%.