The CLARITY Act's chances of becoming law in 2026 have fallen to a record-low 27% after the Senate postponed action on the crypto market structure bill. Polymarket traders cut the odds to 27% on July 29, reflecting growing doubts about the bill's shrinking legislative window. Galaxy Digital has also lowered its estimated probability of passage to 30% as negotiations extend further into the Senate calendar.
Legislative Delay
The Senate Majority Leader John Thune postponed action on the CLARITY Act while lawmakers considered a Russia sanctions package and a group of federal nominees. The Senate voted on July 28 to advance the sanctions legislation, leaving fewer working days for the crypto bill before the Aug. 8 recess.
Bipartisan Efforts
Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan counteroffer covering ethics restrictions in the bill. The lawmakers expect to submit the language to the White House within days.
Industry Support
The CLARITY Act has gained support from major financial institutions, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Fidelity, challenging claims that Wall Street broadly opposes the legislation.
Regulatory Uncertainty
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the regulator remains prepared to address parts of the crypto market structure debate through agency rulemaking if Congress fails to act. However, he emphasized that legislation remains preferable because a statute would provide a more durable framework than regulations that a future administration could revise.
