"" VanEck, a prominent asset manager, has warned that Bitcoin may be approaching an accumulation phase by November. The firm's latest report indicates that eight of its 12 capitulation indicators remained active as of August 12, suggesting a potential turning point in the market.
The current correction has been ongoing for its tenth month, measured from Bitcoin's October 2025 peak. VanEck estimates that the next turning point could arrive between September and November if the current cycle follows earlier patterns.
However, the firm did not present the historical timetable as a reliable price forecast. VanEck disclosed that it has exposure to Bitcoin and warned that its forward return study uses a small number of heavily overlapping observations.
VanEck considers a signal active when its latest reading reaches an extreme historical percentile. Most indicators must fall within the bottom 15% of their recorded history, or the top 10% when a high reading represents stress. Price drawdown uses a separate threshold, with VanEck activating this signal when Bitcoin falls at least 35% from its peak.
According to VanEck's analysis, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 49% from its October record, ranking only in the 35th percentile of its own history. If applying the same percentile rule to the drawdown, the total from eight active signals would be reduced to seven.
The firm defended the separate threshold by arguing that institutional ownership and spot ETP demand could produce a shallower bear market than previous cycles. VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle, but acknowledges that this remains an assumption rather than a confirmed market outcome.
VanEck's backtest provides a cautious reading for investors expecting an immediate rebound. When between eight and 12 indicators were in capitulation territory, Bitcoin returned an average 12.8% over the following 90 days. Its baseline return for all comparable periods was 15.2%.
The firm also noted that the one-year result came from 115 observation days that overlapped heavily, representing only a small number of separate market episodes. VanEck does not place substantial weight on that result.
The findings suggest that capitulation readings may identify late cycle conditions without identifying an exact bottom. They also leave room for prolonged sideways trading before a durable recovery begins.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded approximately $663 million in net inflows during the 30 days covered by VanEck. The total represented about 10,400 BTC at prevailing prices and reversed roughly $2.4 billion of outflows during the preceding month.
Fund flows remained uneven after VanEck's measurement period. U.S. spot funds lost about $385.2 million across the week ending August 14, as crypto.news reported in its analysis of why liquidity has yet to return.
Demand then recovered. Farside data showed $297.5 million of net inflows on August 17 and another $189.3 million on August 18. The combined $486.8 million partly reversed the previous week's withdrawals.
Coins held for longer than one year declined by 356,534 BTC over 30 days, according to VanEck's Glassnode based figures. Holdings fell 2.9% to 11.84 million BTC, equal to 59.1% of circulating supply.
All six long-term age groups contracted. Coins aged between one and two years recorded the largest reduction at approximately 156,000 BTC. Holdings older than ten years fell by only about 4,000 BTC, suggesting the oldest wallets remained comparatively inactive.
VanEck's findings suggest that a sustained increase in spot demand, stronger trading volume, and stabilization in long-term holdings would support the accumulation case. Continued distribution or renewed fund outflows would weaken it.
The period from September through November now provides the next test of VanEck's cycle framework. A sustained increase in spot demand, stronger trading volume, and stabilization in long-term holdings would support the accumulation case. Continued distribution or renewed fund outflows would weaken it.
